Wouldn’t it be good to know when your wardrobe of today will be the vintage of tomorrow? Hold on to those skinny jeans and save yourself some money in the future with our tips on predicting fashion trend cycles.
Wondering what to do with that pair of barely worn designer bootleg pants hiding in a suitcase under the stairs? Rather than dump them in the nearest charity clothing bin or try in vain to auction them off online, it could be worth holding onto them until they make their revival. But how long do you have to wait before you can slip back into your pointed-toe boots, long leather jacket or A-line skirt?
While it’s hard to predict exactly when a particular fashion look, such as the bootleg cut, will be in next, Kate Vandermeer, trend forecaster and founding director of online style scout iSpyStyle.com.au says we can take cues from broader fashion movements and other influential events to help us anticipate what will be hot or not.
Fast fashion to considered couture
As with many industries, the world of fashion is shaped by macro- and micro-trends, where the macro-trend is a larger behavioural movement and a micro-trend is the mini fad.
The frontrunner of micro-trends of the “noughties” according to Vandermeer has undoubtedly been skinny jeans, closely followed by gladiator sandals, the boho “Sienna Miller” look, leggings and footless tights and that ubiquitous celebrity-off-duty guise (think big sunglasses, baggy tops, sandals, leggings and big handbags). But a larger macro-trend underpinning many of those is the 21st-century shopper’s thirst for fast fashion — that “I want it here, I want it now and I want more” consumer mentality that has seen clothing prices (and often quality) drop and supply increase to keep up with demand.
So what lies beyond fast fashion? Thankfully, the crystal-ball formula for macro-trends is fairly straight forward.
“The thing with fashion trends is: what goes up must comes down,” says Vandermeer, “whether it’s simplicity or over-the-top grandeur.”
“We’ve had such a huge influx of fast fashion that we’re going to reach the point where we’ll want to be more individual and we’re not going to be able to afford to keep up the consistency and quantity of what we’re buying.”
While the introduction of overseas labels H&M and Zara to the Australian market will perpetuate the fast-fashion trend in Oz for a little longer than the usual macro movement’s lifespan, Vandermeer says we can expect to see a return to more considered fashion thereafter.
“The more something comes into fashion the more saturation of the market and the more the innovators crave the opposite. So in response to fast fashion I think we will see the continued rise of local, artisan-made fashion and of people putting more consideration into where clothing is made and its quality. There’ll be more of a relationship between the piece and the buyer.”
A return to “investment-wardrobe building” — buying quality pieces that last several seasons and beyond — as well as buying more recycled clothing are also in store for this decade.
“From a mass-market point of view, we’re still in love with fast fashion, but we’re soon going to understand it’s not helping sustainability and our local retail economy,” says Vandermeer.
How to predict a fad
While there’s no real rhyme or reason to when certain eras or fads make their comeback, one look at what’s on television, the big screen and what’s going on in the world can help anyone make a prediction. Politics and the economy are known to heavily influence fashion.
“If we have periods of depression, traditionally the following year afterwards will be a ‘make do and mend’ philosophy,” says Vandermeer. In reaction to the financial crisis of 2008, which is still affecting the global economy, consumers will likely turn to a more conservative, understated palette in the coming years.
“We’ll be seeing cleaner lines, mono-chromatic colours, and a more androgynous look,” says Vandermeer. But after a couple of years of “recovery” time from our financial woes, fashions will soon be back to layers and prints and accessories.
TV shows and films also dictate fleeting fashion trends. Hit US TV drama Mad Men, set in the early 1960s, has had a huge impact on high street fashion styling. Actress Christina Hendricks who plays Joan Holloway in the show has not only helped bring back full skirts, cropped cardigans and longer hemlines, but has almost single-handedly revived the curvy fit, which may influence the demise (or the toning down) of the skinny-legged waif look that dominated the noughties.
The globally popular Twilight series of vampire novels and movies helped spur the “emo” look among the pop culture-obsessed Y generation, while the Sex and the City franchise did much to fuel women’s lust for impossibly high heels, designer labels and all things materialistic.
But no talk of fashion trend influences in the noughties could go without mention of the internet. The rise of street-style blogs, online fashion stores and the immediacy of access to information about what people are wearing the world over has intercepted the predictability of what’s “in season” and turned on its head the usual lifecycle of fashion trends.
“Because technology has allowed us to connect instantly with what’s going on overseas, we’re burning through trends so much more quickly,” says Vandermeer. “There’s never only one way to wear things — there are always four to five main trends each season. There’s a lot more egalitarianism now about how to wear different trends.”
Fad predictions and lasting trends
Along with simpler, more considerate fashion post-GFC, Vandermeer predicts this decade may see a revival of styles from the roaring ’20s.
“The more I’ve been reading about films in pre-production and books, we might be going to see the whole ’20s jazz flapper vibe come back,” she says. The style forecaster also recommends women think twice before trying to sell off their Louis Vuitton, Burberry, Gucci or — insert heritage designer label here — pieces.
“This decade we might see the return of ‘logo mania’ — where it was all about having the full outfit with all the designer label emblems,” says Vandermeer.
As for those old favourite outfits that you’re tossing up whether to put in the charity bin or the treasure box, hold onto them if they’re personally significant. And pack away these four long-lasting wardrobe styles suggested by Vandermeer that — while they might go out of fashion momentarily — can always be relied on to make a regular comeback.
Camouflage/military look: “This comes back every two to three years,” says Vandermeer. Keep a hold of military-style jackets, camouflage prints, anything with military pocketing and details, cargo pants, safari-style shirts, double-breasted navy coats and safari trench dresses.
Nautical-inspired fashion: “It sells so well on the high street in stores such as Sussan, Portmans, Country Road, Trenery — and it works,” says Vandermeer. Picture boat-neck striped tops, red, white and blue co-ordinates, anchor emblems, boat shoes and sailor-themed pieces. Wear it now (nautical is upping its knots in 2011) and save it for later.
Leopard print: “Every year an animal print comes into fashion, whether it’s zebra, snakeskin, leopard or some other print,” says Vandermeer. Ride the leopard print sprint this season, then catch it again in two to three years’ time.
Nude and pastels: The end of every winter signals the time to ditch black and dark colours for a whiter shade of pale. Nude is particularly popular recently in response to the GFC, say Vandermeer, and will be again in the future. “We’re feeling a little bit tender after the GFC and nude offers a clean slate that makes us feel light and uplifted without being too loud. It’s also easier to wear than white,” she says.
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